China XLX Caution Channel Crossing Ahead

When at the channel crossroads look out for a herd of bulls or a sleuth of bears waiting to stake their claims on this prize hallowed ground. Doji candlestick bar formed on 24th Dec 2009 marked the battle of the bulls and bears that trumpeted the charge of the bulls. The bulls stampede rammed through the 63 cents resistance but was met with a strong bear hug at the red upper channel down trend resistance line on 30th Dec 2009. The stochastics crossover at the oversold region and the RSI rebound from 50% support fueled the price raise with increase volume yesterday. However, the Big Bears took profit today as shown by the volume distribution chart. Immediate support is the lower green channel boundary and the bulls must defend this line to prevent a retest of the doji low at 56.5 cents. Immediate resistance is the upper red channel boundary and a successful bull rampage above this resistance will retest the 64.5 cents resistance and empower a challenge to fill the gap at 68 cents.

Genting Testing Double Channel Resistance

Big battle to take out the double blockade formed by the upper red channel resistance and the upper green channel resistance lines. Big Boys buying interest clearly shown on the volume distribution chart. Need to gain a strong foothold above the double blockade to mount an attack on the upper blue channel boundary. Price flip flop between 1.29 and 1.30 at the moment. A closing above 1.30 will signal bullpower for 2010. Happy New Year Everyone.

Z-Obee Doji Testing Fibonacci Resistance

Doji testing 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement and Upper Bollinger Band at 24.5 cents. Big Boys buying in early morning while retail traders were selling as shown by volume distribution chart. Some retail buying detected after 1030am with no Big Boys participation. Bulls and Bears struggle still continues as indecision is indicated by the doji candlestick formation. A breakout above 24.5 cents will empower the next upthrust to challenge the peak at 28.5 cents. Immediate support is the red channel followed by the light blue resistance turned support zone.

Genting Trading Inside the Channel

Big Boys selling at high volume as shown by Volume Distribution chart resulting in a retest of the lower green channel boundary. Price will probably continue trading within the green channel as bulls and bears fight to gain control of the market. If the bulls win trading will move into the region between the upper red channel boundary and the upper green channel boundary. However, if the bears take control expect a fall towards the lower orange channel support.

Z-Obee testing upper resistance gap

Strong buying interest this morning as shown by the volume distribution chart has caused a price surge to filled the upper gap resistance. A strong breakout above the red channel resistance will propel price to next resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and upper Bollinger Band around 24.5 cents. A very strong buying sentiment must prevail to challenge the peak at 28.5 cents. Take note that if buying interest declines a pullback to 50% Fibonacci retracement at 20 cents is imminent.

Yanlord Rounding Top

Rounding Top is also described as an inverse saucer. A rounding top represents a sell signal to technical analysts. The initial upwards trend becomes exhausted as the demand for the stock dries up. The reversal to the downward slope of the rounding top indicates that demand has tapered off and a surplus supply is present, basically there are more sellers than buyers. A rounding top represents a bearish take on the stock.

Yanlord Rounding Top Dome structure is being supported at 2.12 and a failure here will initiate a fall towards the blue trend line. The warning sign has been issued for imminent hazard. Stay alert.

Genting Channel Display

My original chart was suppose to be just a simple Andrew's Pitchfork but it was not able to capture the hidden beauty of the channel display formations with its resistance and support stuctures. Immediate resistance blockade is formed by upper red dotted channel and upper green dotted channel. Those using Andrew's Pitchfork will see median line resistance around this point. Immediate support is the lower boundary of green dotted channel. Take note that both RSI and stochastics are in overbought region and any pullback will see a retest of the lower orange channel support followed by the lower red dotted channel support and the lower blue channel support. However, if buying power remains strong both RSI and stochastics will continue to stay in the overbought zone just like in late Aug 2009 until early Sep 2009. A breakout above the current blockade will propel price to the upper blue channel resistance boundary and challenge the next resistance at the upper orange channel.

Olam testing mid Bollinger Band resistance

Since the rebound from the lower blue channel support on 22nd Dec 2009 price has moved away from the pink support zone into the lavender congestion area. Immediate resistance at mid Bollinger band is being tested now. A strong buying interest is required to empower breakout above this resistance line to challenge the upper blue channel resistance boundary. Take note that a drop below the lavender congestion zone will result in a retest of the green channel support and the pink support zone.

Z-Obee trapped between the gaps

22nd Dec 2009 - Rapid raise after opening followed by swift decline resulting in a clone doji shooting star combination with lower shadow.

23rd Dec 2009 - Gapped down smashing through 50% Fibonacci retracement but the plummet from previous day was arrested by 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 18 cents. Closed with a long upper shadow Rickshaw Man Doji.

24th Dec 2009 - Mini Dragonfly Doji reinforced the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement support at 18 cents for probable upward flight.

28th Dec 2009 - Earlier flight above 50% Fibonacci retracement was unsustainable resulting in a potential inverted hammer candlestick formation.

Price action will probably be confine between the upper light blue gap resistance zone and the lower pink gap support zone. Any breakout above the gap resistance will be blocked by the red channel resistance followed by 23.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance at 24.5 cents.

Immediate support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement support at 18 cents followed by pink gap support zone and green mid Bollinger band which is also the 20 days Simple Moving Average. Breach of this moving average support line will retest 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 15 cents followed by blue trend line support.

Raffles Education Testing Channel Resistance

Since my previous posting on 18th Dec 2009 price had rebound from the lower green channel support at 36 cents and is now testing the upper blue channel resistance. Breakout above this channel will meet resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement around 42.5 cents followed by 50 days EMA resistance. However, if buying interest declines then expect a retest of the light blue support zone.

Sinotel hammer rebound from penta support

Penta Supports :

1. Blue lower channel support

2. Red upper channel support

3. Green trend line support

4. 50 days EMA support

5. Lavender support zone

Immediate pink resistance currently blocking mini inverted hammer candlestick bar formed at 1230 lunch closing. Stochastics crossover at oversold region. Need an increase in buying interest in the afternoon trading session to clear pink resistance zone and challenge the next dark green resistance zone. Failure of lavender support zone will probably result in the closing of gap at 56 cents.

Cosmosteel Stochastics Crossover While Testing 200 EMA support

Ranked as the counter having the lowest k% value using stochastics crossover criteria as at 24th Dec 2009. The current trend is still down and the 200 days EMA support is being tested. Price has been riding down the lower Bollinger band since 16th Dec 2009. The latest doji candlestick bar is sitting on a triple point intersection of the lower green channel line, the upper red channel line and the 200 days EMA support. A successful counter trend rebound here will meet immediate resistance at the 40 cents support turned resistance which is also the mid Bollinger band. Further upward thrust will be challenged at the upper Bollinger band followed by the upper green channel line. If the triple point support fails then the next support will be the red support channel followed by the Fibonacci retracement at 35 cents and the 200 days Simple Moving Average support.

Stochastics k% crossover d% as at 24th Dec 2009

Table above is the result of Amibroker Exploration to find Stochastics k% crossover d% for Stochastics (14,3,3) on 24th Dec 2009. Stochastics must always be used in combination with other indicators for timing trade entries and exits.

DJIA Pitchforks and Trendlines Clash

In late Nov 2009 and early Dec 2009, the DJIA upward thrust was confined by the upper channel of major blue pitchfork . This was followed by resistance from the pink dotted internal trend line which is being tested now. All these events were being played out within the uppper channel of the red minor pitchfork. Breakout above the pink immediate resistance trend line will propel the index upwards to the upper channel of the blue major pitchfork again. The major green down trend line is the gatekeeper preventing higher advance. The red minor pitchfork best describe the index movement now and will most probably be the best guide whether the index climbs higher to lofty heights or slides down lower to either its median line or its lower channel line.


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List of SGX Counters Ranked By Best Performance Using Percentage Change for 260 trading days

Table above is the result of Amibroker Exploration to find best performing counters in the last 260 days which is about one year. Ranking is based on percentage change of closing price in comparison to the lowest low price for the last 260 days.

Percentage Change of Closing Price Formula = ((Latest Close Price - Lowest Low for the last 260days )/Lowest Low for last 260 days) * 100

New IPOs with less than 260 days are also included. Warrants are excluded. Result is as at closing today 23rd Dec 2009.

Olam resistance turned support rebound

Rebound from multiple support zones created by lower blue channel support, green channel and pink support zones. Immediate resistance is lavender resistance zone. Stochastics just crossover at oversold region. RSI rebounced from 41 to 38 RSI support zone. Short term RSI indicates rebounce to lavender zone or even light green zone if buying interest picks up. Long term shows bearish divergence for both RSI and MACD. Breakdown of green channel will force price to retest red support trendline.

List of SGX Counters Ranked By Best Performance Using High-Low Range for 260 trading days

Table above is the result of Amibroker Exploration to find best performing counters in the last 260 days which is about one year. Ranking is based on closing price in comparison to the 260 trading range high-low range.

Percent Close Range Formula = (Latest Close Price - Lowest Low for the last 260days )/(Highest High for last 260 days - Lowest Low for last 260 days) * 100

New IPOs with less than 260 days are also included. Result is as at closing today 21st Dec 2009.

Raffles Education Fibonacci Retracement Play

23rd Jun 2009 - Rebounced off 38.2% support

2nd July 2009 - Stop at 23.6% resistance

20th 21st 24th Aug 2009 - Took 3 days to breakdown 23.6% support with a gap

20th Oct 2009 - Stop at 38.6% resistance

5th to 13th Nov 2009 - 61.8% support tested and rebounced

17th 18th Nov 2009 - Stop at 50% resistance

25th Nov to 11th Dec 2009 - Testing 61.8% support repeatedly until it broke down on 14th Dec 2009

Next play down towards 78.6% support at 35 cents or perhaps a rebounce from lower green channel line ?

Immediate support is light blue zone

Next support is orange zone around 30 cents

Immediate resistance is upper green channel line

Next resistance is pink zone

CapMallsAsia testing 38.2% retracement with channel support

Hourly chart as at 410pm showing support at red and blue channels. Fibonacci retracement at 38.2% and pink immediate support zone being tested. Blue channel support failure will see slide down red channel to green support zone and Fibonacci retracement at 50%. Both stochastics and RSI are oversold but MACD still falling. Technical rebounce will probably be resisted by red upper channel line. Any breakout above red channel will be challenge by light blue resistance zone.

China Eratat Bullish Engulfing Pattern as at 16 Dec 2009 435 pm

Broke above blue downtrend resistance line on 8th Dec 2009 and established support at green support zone. Bullish Engulfing candlestick formation indicating high probability of trend reversal. Immediate resistance is pink zone and upper Bollinger band. Breakout above pink resistance zone will propel price towards next resistance at light blue region. Stochastics, RSI and MACD looks favourable with lots of upside potential. Take note that 3 bonus warrants will be given for every 10 shares.

Yangzijiang retraces to previous support zone

Retesting light blue support zone with rapidly falling MACD. Stochastics entering oversold region without any indication of crossover yet . RSI will probably find support at around 44. Support failure of light blue zone will result in a drop towards lower Bollinger band support and probable decline to light green support zone and retest of bold red uptrend support line.

China XLX Bollinger Bands Hourly Support and Resistance

Price moving between lower and upper hourly Bollinger Bands. As at 4.00 pm the immediate support is the blue mid Bollinger band and violet support area. Rebounce from here will retest green upper Bollinger band and pink resistance zone. If violet support is broken price will drop towards red lower Bollinger band and light blue support zone. Take note of the different colour support and resistance zones.

Sinotel clears resistance turned support trendline

After crossing above the red bold resistance turned support trendline a shooting star has formed at mid-day closing. Immediate resistance is the orange zone. Need to clear this resistance and stay above the red bold trendline to challenge and retest next light blue resistance zone. Stochastics in overbought region short term traders may want to take profit. RSI just below 70 and may cross above 70 if buyers return after lunch break. Those with greater appetite for risk may wait and see how price trades towards late afternoon.

Capitaland retesting support turned resistance trendline

Failed to clear support turned resistance bold red trendline yesterday. A breakout above this resistance line will push price into pink resistance zone. Need to clear $4.30 to retest 26 Oct 2009 peak at $4.46 . Stochastics approaching overbought region while RSI hovering around previous resistance levels 58 to 60. Immediate support is green zone followed by blue zone. Live chart snapshot taken at 2.58 pm.

DJIA comparison between 1929 daily chart and 2009 weekly chart

In 1929 the DJIA peaked on 3rd September at 386.1 and subsequently fell to the 195.35 low on 13th November. This first down swing only took about 2.5 months and was followed by an upward retracement of 53.42% to 297.25 on 16th April 1930. A rising wedge formation was formed giving an early warning of impending trend reversal. What happened after the breakdown from this wedge was a major downtrend that lasted about 2 years 3 months. The DJIA finally stop declining in July 1932.

As December 2009 begins DJIA is currently approaching a major downtrend resistance line as shown by the red bold line. It is also moving closer to the 53.42% retracement denoted by the red dotted line. There is also a rising wedge formation just like in 1929. Will history repeat itself? Is there going to be a major fall that lasts longer the fall from October 2007 to March 2009? Monitor closely the rising wedge breakdown and the critical support at 6440.08 formed on March 2009.